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Trump isn’t as popular with black and Hispanic Americans as he thinks

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Donald Trump and a microphone were paired up over the weekend to predictable effect. The former president, speaking at an event as part of the Faith and Freedom Coalition’s Road to Majority policy conference, amazed to enthusiastic audiences that it was so well received by non-white Americans.

“They actually said I’m the most popular person — or the political person, I guess, I don’t know — the person or the political person with Hispanics,” Trump told the cheer group, “and I’m fine with the black community!”

What’s predictable about this pairing of Trump and the mic is that it’s not true.

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It’s possible that what prompted Trump to raise the idea that he’s popular with Hispanics and Black Americans was a Fox News poll released last week. It’s also possible that he was just saying things and pointing to imaginary polls, as he has done many times before, but let’s just assume he was talking about the Fox poll.

In that poll, Fox News pollsters asked Americans how they viewed four political figures: Trump, President Biden, Vice President Harris and former Vice President Mike Pence. All four were viewed equally favorably, within a point or two range. Among Hispanics, however, Trump’s “strongly favorable” rating was higher than that of the other three politicians. If you squint, you might say that Trump is the most popular “politician” in this poll of Hispanics.

Except he wasn’t. Both Biden and Harris were viewed more favorably overall. Trump had higher “strongly favorable” overall ratings thanks to Republican enthusiasm, which is likely what fueled his strongly favorable percentage with Hispanics. But his total favor was lagging behind. Among black Americans, by the way, he also trailed Pence.

I’ll note as an aside that the phrase “doing well with blacks” doesn’t really make sense in today’s context. Doing well with them… to what? Trump is not running for office, at least as far as the Federal Election Commission has been notified. And is fine compared to what? If the answer to that question is “other Republicans,” then I’m afraid, based on the poll above, that Pence has bad news for his former boss.

This question about the preference of politicians who might run for office is always heavy because it depends on a lot of speculation. In May 2015, Trump was not the Republican who topped the lists of most popular Republican candidates in 2016 because he was not on those lists. It’s entirely possible that a number of other politicians could claim more positive support from Hispanic Americans than Trump, Democrat and Republican. But in this four-candidate poll, he does well on one metric. Bully for him.

YouGov just happened to release a similar, larger poll last week, one of its regular polls for The Economist. He interviewed about eight lawmakers, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). Once we take into account that fewer people had understood from McConnell and McCarthy, we see that Trump is viewed less favorably among black Americans than any of the other listed Republicans and outperforms only McConnell among Hispanics.

So what’s going on here? Again, Trump may be making things up, which he’s been known to do near a microphone. He may also be exaggerating a poll he has seen. Or, perhaps, he is simply trying to raise questions about the extent to which Hispanic voters have shifted to the right in recent elections and taking credit for the change.

I’ll note secondly that Trump is doing better with black voters actually happened in the 2020 election, helping to explain why he did better in more heavily black areas than he had four years ago. Trump has nevertheless spent a lot of energy since 2020 insisting that fraud in those same areas is the reason he lost. Again: He often says things that aren’t actually true.

now consider Why Trump says so. Part of that is that he likes to talk about his popularity and if he can claim his popularity with groups that have generally been skeptical of Republicans, that reinforces the sense of his own excellence that he hopes to instill in His public. He also makes the claim to refute criticism of his race policy – ​​and to help allay any concerns among his supporters that any aspect of his policy stems from heightened racial tensions.

As the midterms approach, Democrats are right to be concerned about both support and turnout among black and Hispanic voters. Biden’s low approval rating – reflected in the numbers above! – a bad omen for the party. We shouldn’t be surprised to see, for example, a shift to the right among Hispanic voters, in part because more conservative Hispanic voters would likely be motivated to go to the polls.

It has little to do with Trump. But he’s already preparing to take credit for it.

#Trump #isnt #popular #black #Hispanic #Americans #thinks

Post expires at 6:47pm on Friday July 1st, 2022

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