Explanation: Why does France need another election? Can he dethrone Macron?

France goes to the polls on June 12 and 19 for the legislative elections. Support for President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble (Together) alliance is falling, raising questions about whether he will win an outright majority in parliament.

Macron’s “Together” bloc would win 28% of the vote in the first round, against 27.5% for the left-wing “Nupes” bloc. Voting takes place on June 12 and 19.

He added that Macron’s centrist camp is expected to win between 275 and 315 seats in the French parliament, where an absolute majority requires 289 seats. Macron needs a majority to help implement pro-business reforms.

Why is winning the presidential election not enough?

Macron won a second term in April as the centrist, pro-European French president. But it’s not enough. He must also win a majority in the lower house of parliament this month to retain full control of his reform agenda.

What do the polls say?

Voter polls had until recently shown Macron’s party and its allies – collectively known as Ensemble – winning an outright majority in the 577-seat parliament. But that outcome has become less certain in recent days.
Momentum is on the side of a leftist coalition led by far-left veteran Jean-Luc Melenchon. Melenchon is unlikely to win the 289 seats required for an absolute majority, but he could win enough to rob Macron.

What if Macron does not reach the majority?

Not reaching an absolute majority would be a big setback for Macron. This would force him to expand his alliance. The larger the alliance, the more complicated reaching agreements and dictating political decisions becomes. The Ensemble alliance did not reach an absolute majority.

A minority cabinet or coalition government would be an unusual scenario for France today. The Fifth Republic was designed to avoid heavy coalitions.

If an opposition group were to surprise and win a majority, Macron would have to appoint a prime minister from the winning camp, ushering in a period of so-called cohabitation. He would retain the leadership of foreign policy but leave the responsibility most of the time. current policy matters to the government.

How is the voting going?

Voting takes place between 8:00 a.m. and 8:00 p.m. (06:00-18:00 GMT) on June 12. In precincts where no candidate wins 50% of the vote in the first round, a runoff takes place on June 19, with each candidate who has won the support of at least 12.5% ​​of eligible registered voters advancing.

The ballot for the legislative elections is trickier than for the presidential election, as different dynamics on the ground make it harder to predict who will win nationally.

Why do the parties fight each other?

Macron’s La République en Marche party alone won 314 seats in the 2017 legislative elections, but has gradually lost MPs to just under 270 now. He has maintained control of Parliament through his allies, which number around 80 legislators.

The two major French parties of centre-left and centre-right dominated the French political landscape until Macron was elected in 2017. Five years later, the two are still fighting for their political relevance and the tectonic plates have exchange.

[with inputs from agencies]


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Post expires at 3:57pm on Saturday June 18th, 2022