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DURHAM, New Hampshire– A public opinion poll in New Hampshire, the state that for a century hosted the first primary in the presidential race, indicates that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has a very slim margin on the former President Donald Trump during a hypothetical 2024 GOP primary game. -top.
According to polls released Wednesday by the University of New Hampshire Center for Survey, 39% of likely Republican primary voters in Granite State would support the Florida governor’s first term, with 37% backing the former president. Respondents were given a list of potential candidates for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, and DeSantis’ margin was well within the survey’s sampling error.
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Former Vice President Mike Pence stood at 9% in the survey, with former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, who served as an ambassador to the United Nations during the Trump administration, at 6%. The other possible Republican White House hopefuls on the list offered by pollsters stood at one percent support, or less.
The survey suggests New Hampshire Republicans’ support for DeSantis is growing. Trump held a 43% to 18% advantage in favor of DeSantis the last time the UNH Survey Center asked a preference question for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination, in October of last year. Trump edged DeSantis 47% to 19% in the UNH survey last July.
“Trump slipping in pre-primary polls is part of a typical pattern, said UNH Center for Inquiry Director Andrew Smith. “A party’s losing candidate in the previous election is usually the most famous person in the party. As the primary draws closer, new candidates emerge and attract more media attention, and therefore more voter attention, than the losing candidate from the previous election.”
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DeSantis has seen his popularity rise among Republican voters in his state and nation over the past two years, thanks in large part to his relentless resistance to COVID-19 restrictions amid the coronavirus pandemic as well as his aggressive actions in culture wars. While DeSantis has repeatedly hijacked talk of a potential bid for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination as he runs for re-election this year, pundits see him as a possible contender for the White House. Trump repeatedly teases about having another presidential run in 2024.
David Carney, a longtime national GOP consultant based in New Hampshire, pointed to increased media coverage of DeSantis over the past year and a half.
“It just shows the power of earned media. Being on TV matters and the President isn’t on TV as much as he used to be, and DeSantis has gone from 18% to 37% in the last year and it’s definitely not people visiting Florida. It’s because of power television news,” noted Carney, a veteran of numerous presidential and national campaigns over the past two decades.
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“It certainly shows the power of Fox News and other conservative outlets with primary voters because DeSantis has had a huge footprint there on the things he does and that resonates with voters, just like Donald Trump did. did before the 2016 race and during his presidency,” Carney pointed out.
The poll shows DeSantis with a massive 66% net favor among likely GOP primary voters, ahead of Trump’s 46% net favor. Another Republican politician with possible national ambitions — South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem — stood at 35% net favor. Pence, of note, came in at a net negative preference of 4% in the survey.
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In addition to being the nation’s first presidential primary state, New Hampshire is also an ongoing general election battleground. Trump lost the state’s four electoral votes to Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton by a very slim margin in the 2016 election. President Biden won the state by 7 points in the 2020 election.
The poll shows Biden leading Trump 50% to 43% in New Hampshire in a hypothetical 2024 general election game, but shows DeSantis ahead of Biden 47% to 46%.
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The UNH Center for Inquiry poll was conducted June 16-20, with 845 likely voters in the 2024 general election — including 318 likely GOP primary voters — surveyed online. The survey’s overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, with a sampling error of plus or minus 5.5 percentage points for likely GOP primary voters.
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Post expires at 5:10pm on Saturday July 2nd, 2022